Are we in the midst of a sea change in office space

by Zain Jaffer

Often in certain stages of our lives we adapted to major changes that happened in our midst. One example of this was the COVID pandemic, which forced everyone to learn how to work in new ways. Work from Home (WfH) took off massively because of new videoconferencing technologies like Zoom and Google Meet. The office business, notwithstanding the strength of high end ones, took a dive because many employees preferred the work-life balance that WfH brought them.

However one of the new mandates that the Trump administration has signed is a return to office order for federal employees [https://www.forbes.com/sites/terinaallen/2025/01/20/trump-signs-order-ending-remote-work-mandates-federal-workers-return-to-office/]. This means that partly filled government office space may now return to their pre pandemic occupancy levels. However some might try to just report in and swipe their badge but leave early. How that plays out remains to be seen.

According to the U.S. Office of Personnel Management, a majority of federal employees already work in their offices full time. In their August 2024 report to Congress [https://federalnewsnetwork.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/OMB-Report-to-Congress-on-Telework-and-Real-Property.pdf], OPM said that 54% of the 2.3 million civilians employed by the federal government work entirely in-person given the nature of their jobs. About 10%, or 228,000 employees, work entirely remotely.

Already many major US companies such as Apple, Amazon, JP Morgan, have asked their employees to return back to the office [https://www.businessinsider.com/companies-requiring-return-to-office-rto-mandate]. Initially there was a strong pushback against that, but increasingly some people are beginning to also want back the social aspect of talking to fellow employees face to face, and are realizing that for some jobs, that face to face interaction brings value.

Those in manufacturing of course never really had that choice. They almost always need to be in their factories most, if not all of their work time.

Working back in the office is just an example of a change that impacts almost everyone in the way they run their work and business. We should probably expect more of these in the future.

This change might also impact the future of offices across the US and the world. In recent years, the future of offices as investment vehicles became dim because of low occupancy and high vacancy levels that threatened their viability. Investment firms and banks have had to write off and sell their office properties for low values, even as much as the value of the land, because they could not see how their construction loans could be paid off if they had no lessees or renters.

Some employees however may decide that having a good work-life balance is more important for them than the amount of money they make. They may decide to resign or retire earlier than they planned. They have the freedom to do that of course, and employers have to plan for that.

As the saying goes, there is nothing sure in life except death and taxes. Increasingly we are reminded of how true that saying is.

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